Three months into the year and we have seen rate cut expectations go from 6-7 to 3-4 to 2 to…maybe none. For a long time, we have seen people say half-seriously that the Fed could be managed by an algo. Some have suggested the Taylor Rule and others just say use the 2-Yr yield. Before we start let me say …
A Different Way To Do Oscillators
If you use charts, and clearly we do, you have seen all the oscillators. RSI, Stochastics (which have no stochastics), ROC, CCI, MACD, Williams %R, etc. There are a bunch. And while there are a million ways to use any tool, the classic way to use these tools is as overbought/oversold indicators. Of course what those terms means is subject …
Is The CRB Raw Industrial Index The Holy Grail?
So the CRB RIND-Raw Industrials Index is on the face of it one of the strangest little indices out there. It is comprised of hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber. If you need to go google what some of those are, then don’t worry we aren’t going …
Baa-10Yr Yield Spread: A Stock Or Bond Indicator?
What is the Baa-10-yr yield spread? The Baa-10Yr yield spread is simply the yield on Baa rated bonds minus the yield on the 10-Yr US Treasury yield. You can get the Moody Baa yield and the US 10Yr yield on the FRED website. You can even do this with the FRED Excel plug in. Alternatively you can get almost the …
The Basic Materials and Utilities Ratio: Just Call It The Real Time PMI
Basic Materials/Utilities XLB/XLU…The Real Time PMI? So the Basic Materials/Utilities ratio is calculated by simply dividing one by the other. If you have the SP Sector data then you can use that or just use the sector ETF’s of XLB/XLU. In Excel it would be =XLB/XLU, in Stockcharts.com it would be XLB:XLU, etc. It is simple to do this ratio …
The Copper Gold Ratio: What it is and why you should track it
What is it and how is it calculated? The Copper/Gold ratio, HG/XAU, is a simple indicator that you can calculate on any platform that allows you to manipulate the data. All you do it take the price of copper and divide it by the price of gold. In Excel, it is literally =HG/XAU, in Stockcharts.com you go $copper:$gold, etc. It …
Market Sentiment 101.1
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”-Nathan Rothschild…maybe Nathan Rothschild is credited with saying that quote, but no one seems to know if he actually said it. Regardless of if he said it or not, the idea rings true. Buy things when no one wants them, and sell them, when everyone wants them. Presumably, the trough …
The Process Driven Macro Markets Survey 1.0
The survey started 11 weeks ago Eleven weeks ago we started to put out a weekly financial market survey. It has been mostly sent out via Twitter so far, and since I am active on FinTwit that is the bulk, but not all, of the people who have filled it out. It took a few weeks to figure out the …
A Short History Of The Growth Inflation Framework
On the front page of our website we go over the basic version of our process. The first two steps involve figuring out how close we are to a recession and where are we in the business cycle. A large part of our process for the second step involves the growth/inflation matrix. The other day we got an e-mail from …
Is Bitcoin The Future Or The Past?
With the latest crash in crypto here are some thoughts on Bitcoin moving forward. We have some general crypto thoughts at the end, but the bulk of this is in regards to Bitcoin specifically. I also did everything in my power to constrain myself from a 20 page rant on both Elon and Davos Man, and stick to the topic …