In our last piece we shared some thoughts on market timing, and how we disagree with the way a lot of people look at the endeavor. In it we referenced this piece by Meb Faber at Cambria showing the other side of the “if you missed the 10 best days in the market” line thrown…
On the front of the site it says that one of the pillars of our process is a thing called “market timing.” It turns out that term is controversial and over time we have gotten a lot of questions about it. Kind of weird tbh as we are clearly fans of active management, and yet…
Big Trade Macro As you may have noticed our name is Process Driven Macro. This was not an accident. One thing in the macro space that everyone is always trying to do is what we call Big Trade Macro. Big Trade Macro is the phenomenon of traders obsessing over the next big generational move. The…
A Chart Filled Look At Where We Are And What We Think The Fed Should Do, And Not Do Three months into the year and we have seen rate cut expectations go from 6-7 to 3-4 to 2 to…maybe none. For a long time, we have seen people say half-seriously that the Fed could be…
On the front page of our website we go over the basic version of our process. The first two steps involve figuring out how close we are to a recession and where are we in the business cycle. A large part of our process for the second step involves the growth/inflation matrix. The other day…
With the latest crash in crypto here are some thoughts on Bitcoin moving forward. We have some general crypto thoughts at the end, but the bulk of this is in regards to Bitcoin specifically. I also did everything in my power to constrain myself from a 20 page rant on both Elon and Davos Man,…
Long enough title? William Shakespeare is my 1st cousin, 14x removed. Whatever talent we share, it is clearly not titling blog posts. But then what does he know about markets? In every business cycle, there are things that are different, but with hindsight that difference is rarely as large as it seemed like it might…
Gold has been an issue for centuries. Whether you were wandering the desert back when Moses went up to Mt Sinai, a miner losing his shirt in the California gold rush, or an investor today it has been hard to know what the truth about gold and what you should or should not do. Just…
One of the primary functions of public markets is to transfer risk. In theory we get paid for this. Someone wants liquidity and at a price, usually a decent one, some trader shows up and gives them liquidity. Are you a founder and want to take some money off the table just in case aliens…
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. We are not thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking…
