A Short History Of The Growth Inflation Framework

On the front page of our website we go over the basic version of our process. The first two steps involve figuring out how close we are to a recession and where are we in the business cycle. A large part of our process for the second step involves the growth/inflation matrix. The other day we got an e-mail from …

Is Bitcoin The Future Or The Past?

With the latest crash in crypto here are some thoughts on Bitcoin moving forward. We have some general crypto thoughts at the end, but the bulk of this is in regards to Bitcoin specifically. I also did everything in my power to constrain myself from a 20 page rant on both Elon and Davos Man, and stick to the topic …

This Time Is Always Different, The Key Is To Decide By How Much

Long enough title?  William Shakespeare is my 1st cousin 14x removed. Whatever talent we share it is clearly not titling blog posts. But then what does he know about markets? In every business cycle there are things that are different, but with hindsight that difference is rarely as large as it seemed like it might be at the time. In …

Gold, Inflation, and Killing Sacred Cows

  Gold has been an issue for centuries. Whether you were wandering the desert back when Moses went up to Mt Sinai, a miner losing his shirt in the California gold rush, or an investor today it has been hard to know what the truth about gold and what you should or should not do. Just like in the time …

We Get Paid For Taking Risks

One of the primary functions of public markets is to transfer risk. In theory we get paid for this. Someone wants liquidity and at a price, usually a decent one, some trader shows up and gives them liquidity.  Are you a founder and want to take some money off the table just in case aliens land and end the need …

Future Simplified Federal Reserve FOMC Statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT   The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. We are not thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking …

Alternative Data In The Age Of The Rona

After the Utah Jazz vs OKC game was cancelled and the world changed a lot of different companies started to provide a lot of interesting datasets that were not previously available. Some are only going to be available until the pandemic ends, while others will likely be available for a lot longer. Since the pandemic is going to last at …

Presidential Polls And The Stock Market The Results Might Surprise You

Over the past few weeks I have been hearing more and more people say things like “the market is up because Trump is narrowing the gap to win” or that “the market is proving that it likes Biden” and other similar sentiments.  Lucky for us there is a lot of data we can look out to find what the market …

The Hype Cycle and Thematic Macro

We have all seen the pic below of the “Gartner Hype Cycle.”  I am not sure how Gartner uses it and am not sure I even care, but I love the pic. It very much shows the “low risk” point of when to get into new and initially over-hyped industries. Look at it and think through some of the “the …

The Stock Market Is Not The Economy

As the rona has progressed and we have seen a renewed spike in case counts and the ensuing rise in hospitalizations and deaths we have also seen the new round of perma-bears. They all seem to want to see the world burn and the SP500 at like 300. I feel pretty good that as long as we don’t have a …