The Hype Cycle and Thematic Macro

We have all seen the pic below of the “Gartner Hype Cycle.”  I am not sure how Gartner uses it and am not sure I even care, but I love the pic. It very much shows the “low risk” point of when to get into new and initially over-hyped industries. Look at it and think through some of the “the …

The Stock Market Is Not The Economy

As the rona has progressed and we have seen a renewed spike in case counts and the ensuing rise in hospitalizations and deaths we have also seen the new round of perma-bears. They all seem to want to see the world burn and the SP500 at like 300. I feel pretty good that as long as we don’t have a …

Building A Process To Avoid Drowning In Information

As you may have guessed by the name of the firm we are big into process. If you work at it you can make almost anything more efficient. This tends to be a good thing for those of us who don’t like missing things that we should have seen. When it comes to the constant deluge of information having a …

Buybacks And Their Effects On Stock Prices

To say buybacks have been in the news the last few months would be a major understatement.   Buybacks have been controversial for a while now, and since the virus bailouts they have become downright toxic. Despite the fact that buybacks are basically, like dividends, just another way to return capital to shareholders, they seem to garner a lot of …

Not All Indices Are Created Equal-Breaking down the SPX, NDX, and R2K

In the last few years, even before the virus, you have probably seen pieces talking about the narrowing of leadership in the indices, usually in reference to the SP500. While we have indeed see a lot of that as the big companies get bigger, one of the more misunderstood issues is how the popular indices are even constructed and what …

If You Are Not Tracking These Counties You Are Doing It Wrong

If you’re tracking the virus and its effects on the economy you want to make sure you are looking past just the state data and going deeper to the counties.  In the same way that not all states are created equal not all counties are created equal either. At least not economically. In fact, 32.3% of GDP comes out of …

Building A Framework For Markets In The Year Of The Rona

Since the world shut down due to the corona virus, most economic data has ceased to matter for the last two months, at least in the normal sense. I mean we know everything looks like trash from PMI data to housing data to anything.  Thankfully there is still a way to look ahead a few months for most of the …

Cut The Anchor (Bias) And Live (Trade) In The Now

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”-John Maynard Keynes “Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”-Paul Tudor Jones   Are you living in the past, the present, or the future? Most trader/investors live in the past, claim to look at the future, and totally forget about the present. This is probably the wrong …

A Lesson In Bear Market Rallies

As I write this, 4/14/20, the world in general, and investors specifically, are running scared. The Covid-19 virus, the most infectious and deadly virus we have seen in years, is killing thousands of people each day and infecting many thousands more. The developed world, and massive parts of the developing world, is in lock down with everyone but essential services …

The Game Is The Game

Cutty-“A lot has changed” Avon Barksdale-“No doubt. But I mean you know…**** some things just stay the same man. I mean the game is the game. And the thing is since the towers is gone I’m gonna need to take my thing to some new places…feel me?” In the great TV show “The Wire”-a show dealing with the drug trade …