The Yield Curve And The Stock Market 1962-2024

The Yield Curve Is Usually Used To Help Forecast Economic Expansions And Contractions, But What Happens To Stocks? Over the past two years (since July-October 2022) we have had an inverted yield curve in the United States. During that time we have heard pundits and practitioners predict recessions, slowdowns, and market crashes. But what actually…

ISM PMI Part One

I have wanted to write about the PMI’s for a while now, but in the public eye (the blog) I kept putting off because the piece would be either one or two thousand words, or a book, and I didn’t love either idea. Then I started writing this “simple indicators” series and figured that I…

The Basic Materials and Utilities Ratio: Just Call It The Real Time PMI

Basic Materials/Utilities XLB/XLU…The Real Time PMI? So the Basic Materials/Utilities ratio is calculated by simply dividing one by the other. If you have the SP Sector data then you can use that or just use the sector ETF’s of XLB/XLU.  In Excel it would be =XLB/XLU, in Stockcharts.com it would be XLB:XLU, etc. It is…