What is the Baa-10-yr yield spread? The Baa-10Yr yield spread is simply the yield on Baa rated bonds minus the yield on the 10-Yr US Treasury yield. You can get the Moody Baa yield and the US 10Yr yield on the FRED website. You can even do this with the FRED Excel plug in. Alternatively…
Basic Materials/Utilities XLB/XLU…The Real Time PMI? So the Basic Materials/Utilities ratio is calculated by simply dividing one by the other. If you have the SP Sector data then you can use that or just use the sector ETF’s of XLB/XLU. In Excel it would be =XLB/XLU, in Stockcharts.com it would be XLB:XLU, etc. It is…
What is it and how is it calculated? The Copper/Gold ratio, HG/XAU, is a simple indicator that you can calculate on any platform that allows you to manipulate the data. All you do it take the price of copper and divide it by the price of gold. In Excel, it is literally =HG/XAU, in Stockcharts.com…
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”-Nathan Rothschild…maybe Nathan Rothschild is credited with saying that quote, but no one seems to know if he actually said it. Regardless of if he said it or not, the idea rings true. Buy things when no one wants them, and sell them, when everyone…
The survey started 11 weeks ago Eleven weeks ago we started to put out a weekly financial market survey. It has been mostly sent out via Twitter so far, and since I am active on FinTwit that is the bulk, but not all, of the people who have filled it out. It took a few…
On the front page of our website we go over the basic version of our process. The first two steps involve figuring out how close we are to a recession and where are we in the business cycle. A large part of our process for the second step involves the growth/inflation matrix. The other day…
With the latest crash in crypto here are some thoughts on Bitcoin moving forward. We have some general crypto thoughts at the end, but the bulk of this is in regards to Bitcoin specifically. I also did everything in my power to constrain myself from a 20 page rant on both Elon and Davos Man,…
Long enough title? William Shakespeare is my 1st cousin, 14x removed. Whatever talent we share, it is clearly not titling blog posts. But then what does he know about markets? In every business cycle, there are things that are different, but with hindsight that difference is rarely as large as it seemed like it might…
Gold has been an issue for centuries. Whether you were wandering the desert back when Moses went up to Mt Sinai, a miner losing his shirt in the California gold rush, or an investor today it has been hard to know what the truth about gold and what you should or should not do. Just…
One of the primary functions of public markets is to transfer risk. In theory we get paid for this. Someone wants liquidity and at a price, usually a decent one, some trader shows up and gives them liquidity. Are you a founder and want to take some money off the table just in case aliens…
