Seasonality is something that some people have a strong belief in and others think it sounds ridiculous, but in what should come to no ones surprise the reality lies somewhere in between. For some things it works relatively well as there are decent cause and effect relationships, and for others it does very little if…
What Happens To The Stock Market When Your Candidate Wins The Election? We have a presidential election every four years. Sometimes the incumbent wins, sometimes they lose. But so far, at least as far back as we have decent stock market data, someone from one of the two dominant parties wins. Everyone wants to think…
The Yield Curve Is Usually Used To Help Forecast Economic Expansions And Contractions, But What Happens To Stocks? Over the past two years (since July-October 2022) we have had an inverted yield curve in the United States. During that time we have heard pundits and practitioners predict recessions, slowdowns, and market crashes. But what actually…
In our last piece we shared some thoughts on market timing, and how we disagree with the way a lot of people look at the endeavor. In it we referenced this piece by Meb Faber at Cambria showing the other side of the “if you missed the 10 best days in the market” line thrown…
On the front of the site it says that one of the pillars of our process is a thing called “market timing.” It turns out that term is controversial and over time we have gotten a lot of questions about it. Kind of weird tbh as we are clearly fans of active management, and yet…
Big Trade Macro As you may have noticed our name is Process Driven Macro. This was not an accident. One thing in the macro space that everyone is always trying to do is what we call Big Trade Macro. Big Trade Macro is the phenomenon of traders obsessing over the next big generational move. The…
A Chart Filled Look At Where We Are And What We Think The Fed Should Do, And Not Do Three months into the year and we have seen rate cut expectations go from 6-7 to 3-4 to 2 to…maybe none. For a long time, we have seen people say half-seriously that the Fed could be…
I have wanted to write about the PMI’s for a while now, but in the public eye (the blog) I kept putting off because the piece would be either one or two thousand words, or a book, and I didn’t love either idea. Then I started writing this “simple indicators” series and figured that I…
If you use charts, and clearly we do, you have seen all the oscillators. RSI, Stochastics (which have no stochastics), ROC, CCI, MACD, Williams %R, etc. There are a bunch. And while there are a million ways to use any tool, the classic way to use these tools is as overbought/oversold indicators. Of course what…
So the CRB RIND-Raw Industrials Index is on the face of it one of the strangest little indices out there. It is comprised of hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber. If you need to go google what some of those are, then…
