On the front of the site it says that one of the pillars of our process is a thing called “market timing.” It turns out that term is controversial and over time we have gotten a lot of questions about it. Kind of weird tbh as we are clearly fans of active management, and yet…
Big Trade Macro As you may have noticed our name is Process Driven Macro. This was not an accident. One thing in the macro space that everyone is always trying to do is what we call Big Trade Macro. Big Trade Macro is the phenomenon of traders obsessing over the next big generational move. The…
A Chart Filled Look At Where We Are And What We Think The Fed Should Do, And Not Do Three months into the year and we have seen rate cut expectations go from 6-7 to 3-4 to 2 to…maybe none. For a long time, we have seen people say half-seriously that the Fed could be…
I have wanted to write about the PMI’s for a while now, but in the public eye (the blog) I kept putting off because the piece would be either one or two thousand words, or a book, and I didn’t love either idea. Then I started writing this “simple indicators” series and figured that I…
If you use charts, and clearly we do, you have seen all the oscillators. RSI, Stochastics (which have no stochastics), ROC, CCI, MACD, Williams %R, etc. There are a bunch. And while there are a million ways to use any tool, the classic way to use these tools is as overbought/oversold indicators. Of course what…
So the CRB RIND-Raw Industrials Index is on the face of it one of the strangest little indices out there. It is comprised of hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber. If you need to go google what some of those are, then…
What is the Baa-10-yr yield spread? The Baa-10Yr yield spread is simply the yield on Baa rated bonds minus the yield on the 10-Yr US Treasury yield. You can get the Moody Baa yield and the US 10Yr yield on the FRED website. You can even do this with the FRED Excel plug in. Alternatively…
Basic Materials/Utilities XLB/XLU…The Real Time PMI? So the Basic Materials/Utilities ratio is calculated by simply dividing one by the other. If you have the SP Sector data then you can use that or just use the sector ETF’s of XLB/XLU. In Excel it would be =XLB/XLU, in Stockcharts.com it would be XLB:XLU, etc. It is…
What is it and how is it calculated? The Copper/Gold ratio, HG/XAU, is a simple indicator that you can calculate on any platform that allows you to manipulate the data. All you do it take the price of copper and divide it by the price of gold. In Excel, it is literally =HG/XAU, in Stockcharts.com…
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”-Nathan Rothschild…maybe Nathan Rothschild is credited with saying that quote, but no one seems to know if he actually said it. Regardless of if he said it or not, the idea rings true. Buy things when no one wants them, and sell them, when everyone…
