In our last post we brought up the idea of using seasonality with financial assets apart from just seasonal commodities. The basic idea being that while actual seasons matter for things like agricultural commodities, in financial assets like FX, rates, or stocks the seasonality studies can show other things aside from if it is the…
Seasonality is something that some people have a strong belief in and others think it sounds ridiculous, but in what should come to no ones surprise the reality lies somewhere in between. For some things it works relatively well as there are decent cause and effect relationships, and for others it does very little if…
What Happens To The Stock Market When Your Candidate Wins The Election? We have a presidential election every four years. Sometimes the incumbent wins, sometimes they lose. But so far, at least as far back as we have decent stock market data, someone from one of the two dominant parties wins. Everyone wants to think…
The Yield Curve Is Usually Used To Help Forecast Economic Expansions And Contractions, But What Happens To Stocks? Over the past two years (since July-October 2022) we have had an inverted yield curve in the United States. During that time we have heard pundits and practitioners predict recessions, slowdowns, and market crashes. But what actually…
In our last piece we shared some thoughts on market timing, and how we disagree with the way a lot of people look at the endeavor. In it we referenced this piece by Meb Faber at Cambria showing the other side of the “if you missed the 10 best days in the market” line thrown…
On the front of the site it says that one of the pillars of our process is a thing called “market timing.” It turns out that term is controversial and over time we have gotten a lot of questions about it. Kind of weird tbh as we are clearly fans of active management, and yet…
Big Trade Macro As you may have noticed our name is Process Driven Macro. This was not an accident. One thing in the macro space that everyone is always trying to do is what we call Big Trade Macro. Big Trade Macro is the phenomenon of traders obsessing over the next big generational move. The…
A Chart Filled Look At Where We Are And What We Think The Fed Should Do, And Not Do Three months into the year and we have seen rate cut expectations go from 6-7 to 3-4 to 2 to…maybe none. For a long time, we have seen people say half-seriously that the Fed could be…
On the front page of our website we go over the basic version of our process. The first two steps involve figuring out how close we are to a recession and where are we in the business cycle. A large part of our process for the second step involves the growth/inflation matrix. The other day…
With the latest crash in crypto here are some thoughts on Bitcoin moving forward. We have some general crypto thoughts at the end, but the bulk of this is in regards to Bitcoin specifically. I also did everything in my power to constrain myself from a 20 page rant on both Elon and Davos Man,…
