Chart #3 SP500/MSCI World ex-US and USD To conclude our series of The Most Important Chart In The World we have Chart #3, and it is a recycled chart from 2025. We didn’t want to do it, but we kind of had to. Last year we showed a few different charts, but the first one…
Chart #2 Global Government Bond Yields Continuing with our “The Most Important Charts In The World For 2026” series today we have global government bond yields We watch yields all day every day but right now they are in an interesting place. US yields have been in a 140bps range since mid-2023 but the same…
Chart #1-The SOX/SPX Ratio YoY What has been the number one topic in markets over the past two years? If you said AI then we are on the same page. AI and the associated power and semiconductor buildout have been the primary driver of equity markets as the hyperscalers are around 40% of the SP500…
Towards the end of 2024 we did three posts all named “The Most Important Chart In The World”. Today we will see how we did, and over the next few days we will post some charts that we think will be the most important for 2026. Most Important Chart #1 First up we have SP500/MSCI…
The Semiconductor Cycle As with most sectors, especially those that manufacture physical goods, the semiconductor industry moves in cycles. We can see this well if we look at the semiconductor revenues over time. In the chart below we have the Worldwide Semiconductor Billings Index from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. You can see the long-term…
Back during the 2013 shutdown I did a bit of work looking at how stocks did in shutdowns. After all we had not had another one in my working lifetime, and the way the media makes it seem they should be a huge deal for markets and the economy. Turns out they are a big…
Continuing with out end of year series of The Most Important Charts In the World-You can see part one with the USD and SP500/World ex-US stock ratio here and part two with different US equity valuations here. Today we will look at a series of data from the Daily Treasury Statement. Withheld Taxes-The Ultimate Coincidental…
A week ago we shared a chart that we think is one of the most important charts going into 2025. Today we want to look at a group of charts that we suspect you will see a LOT of in the new year as well. US Equity Valuations And Forward Expected Returns There are several…
Each year towards year end we tend to see a lot of “the most important chart in the world” type pieces. In that spirit here is one chart that we think is one of the most important charts in the investment sphere. The chart is the USD overlaid with the SP500/Global ex-US Index Ratio. You…
In our last post we brought up the idea of using seasonality with financial assets apart from just seasonal commodities. The basic idea being that while actual seasons matter for things like agricultural commodities, in financial assets like FX, rates, or stocks the seasonality studies can show other things aside from if it is the…
